My Election Predictions vs. Results

I didn't fare so bad in who won each race (9 out of 10), but I'm no Nate Silver:

My Predictions for some select races:
President:
President Obama wins with 290 Electoral Votes and also wins the Popular Vote
Obama wins Pennsylvania by 3-4%
ACTUAL RESULT: 5.2%

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
Senator Bob Casey wins by 6-7%
ACTUAL RESULT: 9.1%

Attorney General
Kathleen Kane wins by 8-9%
ACTUAL RESULT: 14.5%

Treasurer
Rob McCord wins by 9-10%
ACTUAL RESULT: 8.6%

Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale wins by 1-2%
ACTUAL RESULT: 3.2%

Congressional District 12
Keith Rothfus wins by 2-3% over Congressman Mark Critz (I really, really hope that I'm wrong about this one)
ACTUAL RESULT: 3%
*The more I study the results of this race in Beaver County and Allegheny County, the more I am sure that Congressman Jason Altmire would have won vs. Rothfus.

Northern Pittsburgh state legislative races:

State Senate District 37
Raja wins by 5-6% over Matt Smith
PICKED WRONG - ACTUAL RESULT: 5.4%

State House District 30
Hal English wins by 6-7% over David Tusick
ACTUAL RESULT: 13.4%

State House District 16
Rob Matzie wins by 5-6% over Kathy Coder
ACTUAL RESULT: 12.8%
*Kathy Coder is President of Bellevue Council and she lost every voting district in Bellevue.

State House District 20
Adam Ravenstahl wins by 55% over James Barr
ACTUAL RESULT: 63.6%

Predictions

My Predictions for some select races:

President:
President Obama wins with 290 Electoral Votes and also wins the Popular Vote
Obama wins Pennsylvania by 3-4%

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
Senator Bob Casey wins by 6-7%

Attorney General
Kathleen Kane wins by 8-9%

Treasurer
Rob McCord wins by 9-10%

Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale wins by 1-2%

Congressional District 12
Keith Rothfus wins by 2-3% over Congressman Mark Critz (I really, really hope that I'm wrong about this one)

Northern Pittsburgh state legislative races:

State Senate District 37
Raja wins by 5-6% over Matt Smith

State House District 30
Hal English wins by 6-7% over David Tusick

State House District 16
Rob Matzie wins by 5-6% over Kathy Coder

State House District 20
Adam Ravenstahl wins by 55% over James Barr

Anti-Matzie mail!

Kathy's Coder idea for not letting the Government spend 'your' money? Don't pay your taxes!

 

 

What the hell is Kathy Coder talking about? She has attacked State Rep. Rob Matzie for voting in favor of "Pennsylvania's version of Obamacare," yet there are no news sources to back that up. You mean to tell me that Pennsylvania tried to pass state run health care, and not a single paper covered it?

 

That is because the bill that Ms. Koder is citing was about expanding Adult Basic that covered the poorest Pennsylvanians so that our health insurance and hospital costs didn't go through the roof. Here is the fiscal note to House Bill 1 of 2009. Tell me where you see any number that even comes close to $60 billions dollars?

 

If Kathy Coder can have this little understanding of how legislation works, what will she be like as a State Representative? 

 

 

More malarkey from the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania:

 

 

Positive Mail from State Rep. Rob Matzie

Positive piece from State Rep. Rob Matzie:

 

The confusing tales of Kathy Coder

 

Here are some pictures that Mr. Byrne (you can follow his blog about the Pittsburgh Pirates here) took of the mailers. One sentence really sticks out to me as a statement that contradicts what Ms. Coder told the newspapers about her tax issue just a few days ago.

 

 

From a Beaver County Times article:

County court documents indicate that the lien has not been satisfied. Coder, a Conway native, said she and her husband, Ron, have “never missed a payment” and the balance now stands at about $20,000.

“I feel very strongly that I was on top of things and that I handled things well with my business, but when the IRS comes in and audits, it is what it is,” said Coder, who characterized the lien as “not a big deal.”

So Kathy Coder tells the voters that State Rep. Rob Matzie is lying to you! Her and her husband have paid all of their taxes! However, she told the newspaper that she still owes almost half of the back tax bill that comes from neglected to pay the correcty amount over 3 years. Also, she points out on the front of the mailing (it is tough to see) that she disclosed this information on her candidate financial report. Here is where she thinks the average voter is too stupid to understand how candidate financial reports work. You couldn't have paid off all of your unpaid, back taxes and also disclosed this on your candidate financial report. The only thing that gets reported on candidate financial reports are your debts.

While there are some semantics involved in these arguments, my real issue has to do with the fact that she owed $42,000 in unpaid, back taxes. She says it is only because of an audit that she owes these taxes. So if the audit wouldn't have caught her accounting 'errors' she would have found a way to avoid paying thousands of dollars in taxes. Are the voters ready to send someone to be in charge of a $27 billion dollar budget that couldn't even handle her own company's books?

Also, her quote that a $42,000 lien isn't 'a big deal' worries me about how she can relate with the average American worker.

Kathy Coder needs to come clean about what shady accounting practices she used at her company and also why she continues to talk out of both sides of her mouth about this issue.

Also how is it legal for Kathy Coder to take donations from a corporation?

More negative mail in PA House District 16

More negative mail from Kathy Coder against State Rep. Rob Matzie. How much money is being spent on this race?

 

If this candidate doesn't even know how to understand legislation like 'PA's version of Obamacare' how can we expect her to be an knowledgeable legislator? Expanding the Adultbasic program in Pennsylvania isn't Obamacare, but she probably doesn't even understand that. She obviously doesn't understand how medicare works if she thinks that a State Representative could vote to cut it.

 

 



More mail in PA State House District 16

Some great Kathy Coder negative mail that was sent out recently. Since she is distorting Rep. Rob Matzie's record, I see nothing wrong with going after tax issues like this. I believe many personal issues should be left our of politics, but paying your taxes and arrest records aren't personal in my opinion.

 

More negative mail from Kathy Coder

Kathy Coder continues her attack of State Rep. Rob Matzie. In this mailer she claims that Rep. Rob Matzie raised 'your' taxes by $1 billion. Ms. Coder and the PA GOP point to budget votes that Rep. Matzie made. I know the personal income tax level hasn't been increased since 2003, so what taxes if Ms. Coder referring too? If it is all about corporate taxes, I wonder what other revenue that the GOP and Ms. Coder would have had to raise to offset those businesses taxes? I believe she is referring to a vote against a cut in the corporate tax rate, and not a vote to 'raise' taxes, but I'm not positive.

 

To claim that a Democrat that spoke out against the cuts to education in Mr. Corbett's budgets proposals didn't vote to 'restore' education funding is just ridiculous. If people believe these twists and turns they haven't paid any attention to the way Governor Corbett and Ms. Coder's Republican friends have been governing Pennsylvania over the last 2 years.

 

Also, I believe that picture that is used in this mailer is from PCN and should not be used for political purposes. I have spoken about PCN's rule before. 

 

 

It's getting nasty in the PA House 16!

I was given some information a while back about Kathy Coder's tax liens, and I didn't share it because I didn't expect that race to get nasty. However, that has changed with a recent mailing by the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania in support of Kathy Coder. A simply nasty hit piece that tries to tie Rob Matzie to Jerry Sandusky.

But the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania didn’t do their homework about how hypocritical of an attack this is. Kathy Coder's husband, who is a Penn Stater, Evangelical NFL football player Ron Coder, has been intimately entwined with The Second Mile charity ofJerry Sandusky fame/infamy for years if not decades, yet Citizens Alliance sent out a mailer last week trying to tie State Rep. Rob Matzie to Sandusky on the basis of a charity funding vote in Harrisburg?  

Mrs. Coder also has some skeletons in her budget. She won’t let the government spend her money on something she doesn’t want them too. Mrs. Coder and her husband don’t like to pay their taxes on time.

 

Don't you think those who want to serve in government ought to pay their fair share to the government to start with?

UPDATE FROM THE BEAVER COUNTY TIMES: Coder paying off $42,500 in back taxes, tax lien on homea link to The Citizens Alliance of PA on the website of Tea Party Patriots of Central Pennsylvania. Here's what the Tea Party people say about their Citizens Alliance buddies:
http://www.empowerpa.org
“Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania (CAP), founded to raise the standard of living of all Pennsylvanians by restoring limited government, economic freedom, and personal responsibility.. By empowering the Commonwealth’s employers and taxpayers to break state government’s “Iron Triangle” of career politicians, bureaucrats, and Big Government lobbyists. “

Check out the cozy links:

http://www.teapartypatriotscpa.com/links.html

So the Republican party throws money directly at Kathy Coder's campaign while she smiles for the camera and the Citizens Alliance throws money at trashing the incumbent. Nice little game there. If it was a beauty contest, no doubt Kathy would win. Homegrown beauty queen Kathy's face is plastered on billboards in Beaver County - same photo as the one on Kathy's Republican-Party-of-PA-financed mailers. Last week she let on at the Chamber of Commerce debate in Monaca (PSU Beaver campus) that she came home to Conway, Beaver County a few years ago. No! She has been living in and dividing the town of Bellevue in Allegheny County for the past four years on its borough council. She and her prayer group prayed about it and they overthrew the sitting council president in a midterm reorganization coup in 2008. Beauty is as beauty does.

And if you think THIS is a qualifier for running the business of government, well, shame on you:

https://dcr.alleghenycounty.us/DisplayImage.asp?gPDFOH=vol924%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20000006DE&CaseID=FTL-10-003193&DocketType=1040&SeqNumber=1

Don't you think those who want to "serve" in government ought to pay their fair share to the government to start with? Only those who don't have the luxury of big money backing from the Republican Party, the Citizens Alliance, etc., right? Disgusting!

State House Elections - 20th District *UPDATED*

Here is the new map of the 20th State House Distinct. The green parts are the old district and the aqua blue line is the outline of the new district.

First off I have to apologize for the size of that map. Because of the huge...umm...phaulls shaped new 20th district I had to zoom out to get the entire district on my screen. At first glance it looks like half of the district is new with the added municipalities of Bellevue, Avalon, Ben Avon, Emsworth, Neville Township, and Coraopolis.

However, looking up the population numbers of those towns there isn't that many people added to the new 20th District. The population of the district is still mostly in the incumbents, State Rep. Adam Ravenstahl, base.This is a strong Democratic seat with the Northside and Lawrenceville parts of the city. Generally the North Boros vote for Democrats along with Coraopolis.

Again this is a seat that any real challenger would have to come in the Primary.One challenger has mentioned to me that they are planning on running for this seat. Mark Purcell has expressed interest in running for the 20th District...again. Mark Purcell has essentially run for this seat 3 times. He lost in 2006 against Don Walko. He lost in 2010 when attempting to be appointed as the candidate for the special election and he lost in 2010 in the primary to Adam Ravenstahl by 15% in a 4 way race. Purcell also lost to Matt Drozd by 43 votes in an County Council election that I wished he would have been able to pull off.

In a district that hasn't changed much population and didn't add any more of Purcell's base, this looks to be an easy race for Ravenstahl who beat Purcell by 15% last time in a 4 way primary election.

Incumbent: Adam Ravenstahl (Democrat)

*UPDATED*Possible Challengers:

Mark Purcell (Democrat)

Melissa Haluszczak (Republican) (h/t politicspa)

Kathy Coder (Republican) (h/t politicspa)

I think even a well funded Republican would have a hard time winning this seat in a Presidential year. Especially a tea party organizer like Haluszczak