Predictions

My Predictions for some select races:

President:
President Obama wins with 290 Electoral Votes and also wins the Popular Vote
Obama wins Pennsylvania by 3-4%

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
Senator Bob Casey wins by 6-7%

Attorney General
Kathleen Kane wins by 8-9%

Treasurer
Rob McCord wins by 9-10%

Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale wins by 1-2%

Congressional District 12
Keith Rothfus wins by 2-3% over Congressman Mark Critz (I really, really hope that I'm wrong about this one)

Northern Pittsburgh state legislative races:

State Senate District 37
Raja wins by 5-6% over Matt Smith

State House District 30
Hal English wins by 6-7% over David Tusick

State House District 16
Rob Matzie wins by 5-6% over Kathy Coder

State House District 20
Adam Ravenstahl wins by 55% over James Barr

The John Birch Society still has candidates running?



This might win an award for strangest political piece I have ever seen. What is the 'Biblical Truth Campaign?'

 

Those of you (like me) that are old enough to remember when the crazy John Birch Society had some influence on politics aren't that surprised to find out that Mr. Barr is a proud member of the John Birch Society. 

 

Are you allowed to use a political campaign piece to solicit donations for another organization?

 

 

 

 

Unfair and absurd negative mailer from Mark Purcell

Generally speaking, this is an okay piece. Put your positive comments on the front and the negative on the back. However, my opinion (Mr. Purcell is going to love this) is that this piece is absolute b.s. and absurd. To put a fuzzy still from a video of someone with their eyes closed as proof that they are sleeping is just ridiculous. If you have a video of Ravenstahl sleeping, that would be proof, but generally speaking people do blink sometimes.


So I thought I would have a little fun with Mr. Purcell's videos he has posted on his facebook profile. Here are some clips of Mark Purcell sleeping:

Mark Purcell's new campaign slogan should be: "I will never blink as your State Representative!"

This isn't the first time that Mark Purcell has made a questionable campaign mailer:

Another question comes up about copyrighted material. Both pictures appear not to have been taken by Mark Purcell. The first picture that he altered appears to be the same as Rep. Ravenstahl's official picture at his State House website. The second picture has to be a still from a PCN video. There is always a disclaimer during PCN broadcasts that you can't use their copyrighted material for political purposes. I doubt there is any reprimand for using these pictures illegally, but I'm sure Mark Purcell will plead no contest to those charges too:







Mr. Purcell has attacked me for being anonymous, accused me of being part of the conspiracy, a girlfriend of a candidate, Luke Ravenstahl, and working for the Ravenstahl campaign. I'm sure this post won't help.

Let the conspiracy continue!

New positive piece from Adam Ravenstahl

Great positive piece about reform. I think this will resonate with the voters:




I have heard from sources that Mark Purcell sent a negative piece out against Ravenstahl today.
Two of my sources have told me that the the latest Purcell negative is borderline slanderous with a untrue statement claiming that Ravenstahl was sleeping on the floor of the House with a picture of him either blinking or looking at the computer on his desk. I hope to have a copy to share soon.

Positive Mail from State Rep. Adam Ravenstahl

Positive mail piece from Adam Ravenstahl:

Negative mail in the 20th District State House race

Here is a recently mailer that Mark Purcell sent.

Since the piece is only one color, it won't stick out. It doesn't stick out in a handful of business post cards. I also believe the picture to be a bit childish. I expect more from a 65 year old candidate, but after reading some of the tactics that Mr. Purcell has used in his numerous runs for office (State House as a Republican in 1982, County Recorder of Deeds in 1987, U.S. Congress in 2002, State House in 2006, State House in 2010) I don't expect him to do much that isn't negative.

I had a discussion with Mr. Purcell via email about his attack on Adam Ravenstahl for not talking on the floor of the house is going to resonate with the voters:

To: NorthPgh Progressive

William:
Thanks for the thoughts, But he is very doable because the fact of the matter is that he has done virtually nothing the whole year and a half he has been there,…for example…he has never once taken the microphone and spoke one word on the house for, or in caucus…Never attends any community meetings..yet he promised to roll up his sleeves and fix the property tax assessment mess….not one word out of his mouth about it in any way shape of form…No proposed legislation of any kind, nothing…he is one of the worst legislators I have ever seen,…when I get done with him he will be running away from Harrisburg…He is way out of his league there. Keep I touch, I always like hearing differing opinions…keeps me in prospective.

Mark
----------

From: NorthPgh Progressive
Date: Sat, Jan 7, 2012
To: Mark Purcell

How do you know so much about what goes in in caucus? I take it a House member doesn't like Ravenstahl and is feeding that info to you? Do you still work for the State House? I thought you worked for a representative last time you ran. I don't have that much time to watch PCN for what goes on in session! haha.

I have to disagree with you again, because I'm not someone that believes you have to be vocal to be a leader in a group of 203 cocky elected officials. Sometimes talking can be detrimental to the cause and I believe in elected officials that listen more than they talk sometimes. I guess I judge a freshman representative different than you. The ones that get up there and make a big stink usually burn out early because the guys that have been there forever control everything.

As for the tax assessment mess, what more could any of our State Reps do? Except for Randy Vulakovich, all of our Allegheny County reps voted for the moratorium. I am on the email blast list for the reps in the North Hills and I got an email from Ravenstahl that said how to appeal and what he has tried to do. I don't attend community meetings, but I get an email from him about every 2 weeks about what he is doing. If he isn't doing anything, he is at least doing a good job of sounding like he is up to good things in Harrisburg if you are a progressive Democrat and on our side about Marcellus Shale, School Choice, etc.

Sorry to be negative again, but the things you explained don't play well with the average voter in my opinion. Sadly, the average voter doesn't read blogs and barely pay attention to what State Representatives do. Even if you try to explain that in a mailer I think it would be tough to get across. I'm a political mail junkie. haha I just feel this would be extremely costly to make this race doable considering Ravenstahl won convincingly last time with 2 other candidates from the Northside in the race. I will guess that many of the Northside votes that went to Keller would jump to Ravenstahl. Like I said before, if the original map that the GOP drew up that didn't even have Ravenstahl's house in it, you would be sitting on higher ground. But with a city base and spread out to Coraopolis where I will assume the Reps that had those areas before will help Ravenstahl, it will be an uphill and costly battle for you.

After all that opinion, I will wish you good luck still. Keep me updated on your campaign and I will spread the info on my blog when I have time too. A question, are you going to file for the endorsement? I'm not a big believer in what the endorsement does for a candidate in the North Hills, but I'm not familiar enough with the city to see if the process does anything in those areas.

Thanks!
North Pgh Progressive

I have no problem with a elected official that doesn't get up to the microphone too often. I generally think that those that give speeches on the house floor are grandstanding. The members in the background on PCN generally look like they aren't paying attention. I often wonder when I turn on CSPAN or PCN if anyone is paying attention to the floor speeches by other members.

Also, I feel that there is way more to being a State legislator than giving speeches in Harrisburg. If Adam Ravenstahl wasn't saying anything all to his constituents, then I would have a problem. However, his state website looks like he is decently active in sending out press releases and newsletters. I know that I have signed up for emails from the legislators that serve the Northern part of the county and I have received quite a few from Adam Ravenstahl about what is going on in Harrisburg.

I really didn't think I would cover this campaign that much, but a few conversations (or should I say scoldings) from Mr. Purcell and it has become the 2nd most exciting race (after the Altmire/Critz race) for me. Mr. Purcell has attacked me for being anonymous, part of the conspiracy, a girlfriend of a candidate, and working for the Ravenstahl campaign. I'm sure this post won't help.

Let the conspiracy continue!

The interesting mailings of State House candidate Mark Purcell

I received a copy of a letter that Mark Purcell sent to Democratic committee members when he was running for the endorsement for State House. Other than being long winded and negative they appear to be intentionally misleading and at least one 'fact' is pure speculation.

First off, this if just ridiculous if Mr. Purcell thought people might read this letter and think this is about Adam Ravensthal's campaign report. Luke's name was left off of every sentence and instead he was referred to as 'Ravenstahl' in hopes the committee members would think Adam Ravenstahl and Mike Turzai are in cahoots.

Secondly, you have to be kidding me that you think Luke Ravenstahl (cash on hand $342,000) and Mike Turzai (cash on hand $314,000) would risk their political careers for $1,000 donation to 'fix a legislative seat for Adam.' It is also crazy to think that Mike Turzai would fix any seat for a Democrat after the way the redistricting was handled. My sources tell me that any changes that were made to the 20th were between two Democrats (Adam Ravenstahl and Dom Costa) and that historically the majority party has allowed the minority party to swap parts of their districts between their own members.

Also, you might want to check some labor political action committees. They have given Republicans in the State Legislature thousands of dollars in the last few years including Republican Leader Mike Turzai.

There should be some accountability when someone makes a claim like this in a political mailer. Usually you see a footnote and a source.

Now let's talk about calling out everyone for being self-serving. Did Mr. Purcell really think that calling out Democratic chairs would win him the endorsement? (It didn't.) What happens if Mr. Purcell wins, does he think that Rep. Dom Costa and Democratic Leader Frank Dermody won't remember that they were called self-serving by the new freshman Representative? This sure won't be a conversation starter in Harrisburg as Mr. Purcell claims he will do on his website:

"The gridlock in Harrisburg and our national politics has a profound negative effect on all of us. We need to move away from partisan politics and move towards conversation and cooperation. I will work with both Democrats and Republicans for the good of Pennsylvania and its citizens."

This isn't the first time Mr. Purcell has printed misleading campaign literature. (Page 17)

Let the conspiracy continue!!

20th District State House Handouts

I have been recently accused by Mark Purcell to be part of the 'conspiracy' because I questioned some of his opinions (or as he called them facts) about the 20th State House race in regards to the candidacy of Dave Schuilenburg.

I generally don't endorse candidates for office, but those that read my blog know that I do generally stick up for Democrats that are currently elected. I let Mr. Purcell know via email when he announced his interest to run again for State House that I thought it would be tough for anyone to beat Ravenstahl no matter what the map looked like. Simply put, Adam Ravenstahl has good name recognition and I believe that Ravensthal hasn't made any mis-steps as a State Representative.

So with hopes of not being accused of being part of the 'conspiracy' that is out to get Mr. Purcell here is some literature from Adam Ravenstahl and Mark Purcell.

I will of course be accused of my bias for Mr. Ravenstahl, but I have some real issues as a progressive Democrat (that supports public education) with a plan to eliminate property taxes. It may sound impressive on the campaign trail, but we have to make up that revenue somewhere. It sounds very Tea Party like.

The concept that the government can just clean up 'waste' to save money and it doesn't cost more is a misnomer that I have argued with conservatives about before. I believe that it would cost a lot of tax payer dollars to clean up welfare abuse. So I think it would be spending bad money for a net loss.

I agree that we need more moderate politicians on both sides to tackle the tough problems. However, that is a tough sell in Primary Election.

I find it ironic that someone that brags about their 20 years as a local elected official now wants to tell everyone that we need term limits and limit everyone's service to 8 years.




I agree with Mr. Ravenstahl about the size of the legislature, but also worry that it will make it harder for a grass-roots candidate to win a seat in the legislature.

Glad to see he voted against Marcellus Shale legislation and is making it part of his campaign.

Not that impressed by a legislator that shows up, that is their job.

Let the 'conspiracy' continue!

Dave Schuilenburg stays on ballot in PA House District 20

This is good news for State Rep. Adam Ravenstahl who now has two opponents instead of one. Even though it appears that Rep. Ravenstahl already had the upper hand in this race. Ravenstahl won in 2010 by 15% and is facing Mark Purcell (who ran against Ravenstahl in 2010) and Dave Schuilenburg. I don't see any mis-steps that Ravenstahl has made as a Democratic State House member. He has voted the way I want Democratic/progressive elected officials to vote.

I hate petition challenges that just seem frivolous. I understand that we don't want 10 people on the ballot, but going after technicalities of seroius candidates is just un-democratic in my opinion.

Press Release from the Schuilenburg campaign:

PRESS RELEASE - FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

GRASSROOTS HOUSE CANDIDATE OVERCOMES VOTER SUPPRESSION CHALLENGE

Summer Hill, Pittsburgh - After comprehensive review by the Commonwealth
Court, local grassroots & community organizer, Dave Schuilenburg,
currently a candidate for PA's 20th House District, easily survived an
unsuccessful ballot challenge to his candidacy.

The challenge was formally filed by Bobby Wilson, a known supporter of
Mark Purcell of Ross Township, another challenger for the seat. Purcell, a
perennial candidate who has lost bids for the same post 4 times in the
past, a bid for congress in 2002, & a bid for County Council in 2005, has
been known for challenging petitions.

"While I respect Mr Wilson & Mr Purcell's legal right to do so, what the
residents of our district so desperately need right now are candidates
ready to run on the issues most directly affecting them, and not petition
challenges & potential redistricted maps. Worse, though, is the method in
which they did so, appearing on elderly voters steps as late as 10pm to
interrogate & serve them with subpoenas, voter intimidation tactics which
are clear signs of a desperate campaign."

Schuilenburg, a 9-1-1 Officer & a respected community leader on the North
Side, reaffirms the reason for his candidacy as proof of why his petition
was challenged. "As I did when I ran for Pittsburgh City Council on the
issues in 2007, & subsequently amassed 25-30% of the vote, I accepted
calls to run again this year on the issues as Mr Purcell refuses to do so,
and would rather run a republican style negativity campaign. As such, he
perceives my candidacy as an obstacle to his quest for power."

"If Mr Purcell truly believes he is the best candidate to address the
needs of voters in our district," adds Schuilenburg, "then I formally
challenge him to a debate! Let's hash it out, on the issues. It is time
that the voters of the 20th District had real choices at the ballot box,
and not just the same unproven and unelectable candidates that they have
seen in years past."

# # #

Petition Challenges in Allegheny County - UPDATED

Here is a breakdown of the petition challenges in Allegheny County races. I have spoken out about petition challenges before. I think in general they are undemocratic and are usually based on technicalities of the circulators, notaries, or signers that fill out their address/name incorrectly. It is an insult to those that sign the petitions trying to get candidates on the ballot.

See the whole list here: 2012 Petition Objections

PA Congress:

12th District: The Mark Critz campaign is challenging Jason Altmire's petitions.

PA State House:

2oth District: The petitions of David Schuilenburg (Dem) are being challenged. The challenger's name is Robert Wilson and is the father of 2011 city council candidate Bobby Wilson. It appears to be the work of the Purcell campaign. Purcell has gone after candidates' petitions in the past.

22nd District: The petitions of Stephanie Crossey (Dem) and Shawn Lunny (Dem) are being challenged. Sources tell me that this is the Molchany campaign trying to setup a 1 on 1 race between her and Martin Schmotzer.

24th District: The petitions of Rep. Joe Preston (Dem), William Anderson (Dem), and Todd Koger (Dem) are being challenged. Looks like the Ed Gainey campaign is putting on a full court press.

33rd District: I read the Department of State's petition challenge incorrectly and thought that someone was running in the 33rd District for State House, but it was actually the 33rd District for State Senate. My apologizes to Rep. Frank Dermody for accusing him of challenging someone petitions when he had nothing to do with it.

45th District: The petitions of Maribeth Taylor (Dem) are being challenged by Rep. Nick Kotik. Rep. Kotik has also done this before against the same candidate.

Rep. Adam Ravenstahl crushes Mark Purcell for Democratic Endorsement

PA State House (20th District)

Adam Ravenstahl 111 (84.09%)
Mark Purcell 21 (15.91%)

Wow. I think those numbers speak for themselves. That is a huge victory for the Ravenstahl campaign. I have been told that Purcell sent two negative mailers against Ravenstahl. I don't have a copy of them, but I have been told that Purcell called out 7 Allegheny County Democratic Chairs, State Rep. Dom Costa, and State Rep. Frank Dermody for being 'self-serving.' This is a bold move since so many Democratic Committee members have good relationships with their committee chairs. Plus it would tough to go to Harrisburg and serve with the majority leader after you called him 'self-serving.'

To take a whipping like this on endorsement day and add in the fact that Purcell has been rejected by the votes of the 20th district in the 2006 and 2010 Primary, this has to just be demoralizing to a campaign.

On another note, I was contacted by Dave Schuilenburg the other day saying that he is running for the 20th State House seat. Mr. Schuilenburg ran for the City Council Special Election to fill Luke Ravenstahl's council seat as an independent against Darlene Harris. Schuilenburg ran for the Democratic endorsement as a Democrat in the 2007 Primary against Darlene Harris. According to my sources, Darlene Harris was Mayor Ravenstahl's pick to fill his council seat back in 2006. (Funny how that relationship has changed in a few years). Schuilenburg than ran against Harris as a Independent in the General Election and got 25% of the vote. A very impressive number for an independent running against a Democrat.

Allegheny County Democratic Endorsements

Everyone that closely follows politics in the Pittsburgh area will be waiting for the results of the Allegheny County Democratic Endorsement meeting. The bloggers, politicos, and political reporters pay more attention to the endorsement than voters. We have seen plenty of candidates without the endorsement win the Primary, so I don't know how effective getting the endorsement is. However, it is important to the candidates and their campaigns as a momentum swing leading into the Primary.

Here is the list of candidates going for the endorsement:
http://www.alleghenydemocrats.com/our-candidates

I've been told that there have been some mailings sent out in the Altmire/Critz race, but no one sent them to me this year. One comment from a reader was that Critz appears to be spending a lot of money for the endorsement.

My predictions for the endorsement vote in contested races:

Doyle over Brooks
Altmire over Critz
Ravenstahl over Purcell
Schmotzer over Frank and Lunny
Gainey over Preston

We'll see the results on Sunday.

State House Elections - 20th District *UPDATED*

Here is the new map of the 20th State House Distinct. The green parts are the old district and the aqua blue line is the outline of the new district.

First off I have to apologize for the size of that map. Because of the huge...umm...phaulls shaped new 20th district I had to zoom out to get the entire district on my screen. At first glance it looks like half of the district is new with the added municipalities of Bellevue, Avalon, Ben Avon, Emsworth, Neville Township, and Coraopolis.

However, looking up the population numbers of those towns there isn't that many people added to the new 20th District. The population of the district is still mostly in the incumbents, State Rep. Adam Ravenstahl, base.This is a strong Democratic seat with the Northside and Lawrenceville parts of the city. Generally the North Boros vote for Democrats along with Coraopolis.

Again this is a seat that any real challenger would have to come in the Primary.One challenger has mentioned to me that they are planning on running for this seat. Mark Purcell has expressed interest in running for the 20th District...again. Mark Purcell has essentially run for this seat 3 times. He lost in 2006 against Don Walko. He lost in 2010 when attempting to be appointed as the candidate for the special election and he lost in 2010 in the primary to Adam Ravenstahl by 15% in a 4 way race. Purcell also lost to Matt Drozd by 43 votes in an County Council election that I wished he would have been able to pull off.

In a district that hasn't changed much population and didn't add any more of Purcell's base, this looks to be an easy race for Ravenstahl who beat Purcell by 15% last time in a 4 way primary election.

Incumbent: Adam Ravenstahl (Democrat)

*UPDATED*Possible Challengers:

Mark Purcell (Democrat)

Melissa Haluszczak (Republican) (h/t politicspa)

Kathy Coder (Republican) (h/t politicspa)

I think even a well funded Republican would have a hard time winning this seat in a Presidential year. Especially a tea party organizer like Haluszczak