Tuesday, November 13, 2012

My Election Predictions vs. Results

I didn't fare so bad in who won each race (9 out of 10), but I'm no Nate Silver:

My Predictions for some select races:
President:
President Obama wins with 290 Electoral Votes and also wins the Popular Vote
Obama wins Pennsylvania by 3-4%
ACTUAL RESULT: 5.2%

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
Senator Bob Casey wins by 6-7%
ACTUAL RESULT: 9.1%

Attorney General
Kathleen Kane wins by 8-9%
ACTUAL RESULT: 14.5%

Treasurer
Rob McCord wins by 9-10%
ACTUAL RESULT: 8.6%

Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale wins by 1-2%
ACTUAL RESULT: 3.2%

Congressional District 12
Keith Rothfus wins by 2-3% over Congressman Mark Critz (I really, really hope that I'm wrong about this one)
ACTUAL RESULT: 3%
*The more I study the results of this race in Beaver County and Allegheny County, the more I am sure that Congressman Jason Altmire would have won vs. Rothfus.

Northern Pittsburgh state legislative races:

State Senate District 37
Raja wins by 5-6% over Matt Smith
PICKED WRONG - ACTUAL RESULT: 5.4%

State House District 30
Hal English wins by 6-7% over David Tusick
ACTUAL RESULT: 13.4%

State House District 16
Rob Matzie wins by 5-6% over Kathy Coder
ACTUAL RESULT: 12.8%
*Kathy Coder is President of Bellevue Council and she lost every voting district in Bellevue.

State House District 20
Adam Ravenstahl wins by 55% over James Barr
ACTUAL RESULT: 63.6%

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