Why Congressman Altmire could have won

Why Jason Altmire could have won – and why the Democrats and unions played right into the hands of State Representative Mike Turzai and the Pennsylvania Republican Party.

You knew this post was coming.

I’ve never denied or been ashamed of my admiration for Congressman Altmire, and I’m really sad that our region will lose him at the end of the year. He’s done a great job voting for the district as a whole, and as a Democrat, I recognize that I probably won’t be represented by another Democrat in Congress in the next 10 years (if not longer). 

There are currently about 5,000 more Democrats in the new PA-12 than in the old PA-4.  There are fewer Democrats, though, in the new PA-12 than the old PA-12. So, for Critz, who boasted about being able to win in hard scenarios, this should have been a shoe-in for Critz, right?   

Wrong. 

Mark was an unknown to the Altmire voters in the new parts of PA-12 district. I can’t figure out if he thought he would win them regardless of what he did or if he thought they were a lost cause. If Critz thought they would automatically go with him, Critz and his team didn’t review voting trends in the area. If they thought they couldn’t win the Altmire voters, I’m wondering why he even ran in the primary considering the landscape of the new district. 

It’s been interesting to me to read the post-Election Day fall out regarding this race. The Post-Gazette even said last week that that no Democrat could have won. The Trib has been fairly quiet.  Twitter has been buzzing about how much money the Republicans spent trying to win it.

Congressman Altmire lost Allegheny County by fewer than 500 votes in 2010 to Keith Rothfus.  Mark Critz lost by 15,000 in Allegheny County.  Altmire won Beaver County by 9,000 votes in 2010. Mark Critz won by 1,000 in Beaver County.  Right there, Altmire is 23,500 votes ahead of Mark Critz’s performance last week.  

 

In 2008, Congressman Altmire won by 12% when Obama lost Altmire's congressional district by 11%.

In every plausible scenario involving Beaver and Allegheny counties, Altmire would have beaten Rothfus in 2012. In 2010 Altmire beat Rothfus when ever other Republican running in Altmire's congressional district won the district by double digits. Altmire ran ahead of every Democrat in the 2010 election cycle in his district, so to even insinuate that people don’t split their tickets is ludicrous. They did in 2006, 2008, and 2010 for Altmire, and there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t have this year – especially considering that this wasn’t the Democratic wipe out year it was in 2010.

Money isn’t spent to help challengers who can’t beat their opponents.

In a year when Republicans picked up 70+ seats in the House, there’s a reason that outside money against Altmire was minimal – they couldn’t beat him. When Critz won the primary, the Republicans saw the pickup opportunity and targeted the seat knowing they could win. Don’t blame the outside money – blame the liberal Democrats and unions who supported Critz in the primary. 

I really hope that the liberal, activist Democrats in the party and these union folks who helped oust Altmire in April recognize what they’ve done. They played into the hands of the Pennsylvania Republican Party. In a 14 year stretch, we’ve elected a Democrat to Congress from northern Allegheny County three times– Jason Altmire’s six years in office. The awful Hart and Rothfus duo have never been beaten in a run for public office unless Altmire is on the ballot.

 

I have made this mistake before, I voted for Melissa Hart in 2000 because she appeared to be a moderate Republican. I was wrong, and I then had to deal with her until 2006 when Altmire came through and won this seat against all odds.  

I hope that Congressman-elect Rothfus represents our district with the level-headedness that Altmire did, but I’m extremely skeptical.

More Rothfus Mail

Some Rothfus mailings that hit mailboxes this past weekend:

 

 

 

 

 

Funny, Rothfus doesn't mention the millions that have been spent on his behalf by organizations that never have to tell you where their money comes from:

Anti-Critz Mail

Trying to get all the mail scans up on the blog before Election Day. Here are a bunch of Anti-Critz mail from various organizations:

Paid for by the Republican Young Guns organization:

From the Rothfus campaign. They are again using numbers against Critz from Jan 2009 to present, even though Critz has only been in office since June of 2010:

This if from the Rothfus campaign and it touts the ultra Conservative, and only support Republicans, Pro-Life Group that endorsed Rothfus. Here is a link to their cited source. The Pro-life voting percentage is based on votes against repealing Obamacare and not actual Pro-Life legislation:

Is Keith Rothfus a Regular Guy?

A mesage from PA Working Families. Tea Party Republican, lawyer, Keith Rothfus, likes to say he is a regular guy who understands the problems of working people in Western PA. But many western Pennsylvania residents disagree.

AFL-CIO mail in support of Mark Critz

Some positive mail for Congressman Mark Critz that was sent out to AFL-CIO members.

 

Faith and Freedom Coalition Mailing

More mail from the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. Keeps on pushing the lie that Congressman Mark Critz voted for Obamacare.

 

 

Mailing from the Americans for Tax Reform

More outside spending form the Americans for Tax Reform in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. Keith Rothfus has signed a pledge that Pennsylvania's biggest Republican already broke.

 

Keith Rothfus spreads more lies about Congressman Mark Critz

More attempts by the Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania and Keith Rothfus to distort Congressman Critz's so called 'liberal' record.

 

Notice they used the 95% number from May 2012. His actual score with Nancy Pelosi as of today? 74%. Did you know lots of legislation are passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties? Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner vote together 23% of the time? So 23% of that 74% of the votes that Critz has voted with the Democrats he has also voted with the Republican Speaker of the House.

 

Notice they try to tie Obama and Critz together, even though Congressman Critz has only been in office sine June of 2010 and Obama has been in office since Januaray 2009. I'm sure unemployment is down since Critz took office and I'm sure the debt hasn't increased by $55,000 since June 2010.

 

Rothfus continues to misrepresent Critz not voting in favor of Obamacare

 

Amazing how Rothfus continues to rail against Congressman Critz for Obamacare, even though Congressman Critz didn't vote for Obamacare. Just because Congressman Critz didn't participate in the political game by the House Republicans of voting to repeal he now has to put up with this crap from Rothfus.

 

What is the Rothfus plan for health care? Does Rothfus have any ideas outside of his Tea Party talking points?

 

 

Rothfus spins his Medicare cuts proposal

 

Read the fine print, Keith Rothfus still wants to make Medicare a voucher system. So those of you that aren't near retirement age and have been paying Medicare taxes all your life, you won't have Medicare as we know it.

 

Rothfus wants private insurance companies to make the medical decisions for you based on price and profit.

 

 

 

 

 

Keith Rothfus' Problem With Facts

Union Mail! In support of Congressman Mark Critz

This mailer was sent to members of the AFL-CIO in the 12th Congressional District.

 

 

Don’t believe what you’re told! Rothfus loves his version of Medicare

Political campaigns don’t send this type of mail to defend a candidate unless the negative message is starting to work for their opponent. As has been the major issue in PA Congressional District 12, this answer addresses Medicare. As both sides are claiming that the other is really the one that wants to destroy Medicare, Rothfus goes for the half-truth of the Paul Ryan Medicare plan, that Rothfus supports, that wouldn’t affect any current seniors. While this is true in essence, it is ignoring those that have paid into for years and would be stuck fighting with high prices of profit through a Medicare voucher system.

The Rothfus campaign is quick to point out that the Medicare attack that was first used by the Democratic Party was the 2011 Politifact Lie of the Year. What the Rothfus campaign fails to say is that Critz isn’t using the ‘lie of the year’ part of the attack. Want to invoke our Lie of the Year? Get it right: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/mar/29/want-invoke-our-lie-year-get-it-right/

It is simple to me. The Republican’s plan, that Keith Rothfus supports, will still be called Medicare. It just will barely resemble what we now call Medicare.

It is kind of like supporting ‘civil unions’ as long as we don’t call it ‘gay marriage.’ It allows moderate Democrats to support gay marriage initiatives (Yes, I am aware that civil unions don’t carry as much weight as legal marriage.) as long as they can tell their God fearing constituents that they don’t believe in ‘gay marriage.’

No we aren’t getting rid of Medicare! It will still be called Medicare! Just now our rich buddies that run the insurance companies and hold our current medical system hostage can continue to make decisions about your care based on profit and price after you turn 65!

Rothfus Mail

Here are some mailings by Keith Rothfus trying to tie President Obama to Mark Critz. Since Rothfus would have a hard time running against Critz’s actual record of being a moderate Democrat that is Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, and Pro-Military, Rothfus is going to try and paint Critz as a flaming liberal. That is a bit of a hard sell in my opinion. The people that this type of mail piece really resonates with aren’t going to vote for any Democrats this cycle. So it looks like the Rothfus campaign just spent a couple of thousand dollars to preach to the choir.

Just like in 2010, Rothfus doesn’t seem to get what it takes to talk to the moderate split ticket voters that exist in Western Pennsylvania.

 

One of these things is not like the other

As I started to notice some campaign signs that have popped up around the North Hills, something caught my eye. I noticed that the Mark Critz for Congress signs looked different than the ones they used in the spring. I was pretty sure that the yard signs used by Mark Critz in the spring included the word ‘Democrat.’ To the archives! (Or at least to Google search.)

Here are some pictures from the spring:

Here is a picture of the current signs: 

As I told the Twitter Account for Mark Critz’s campaign, I believe this is a smart move by a Democrat that is running as a moderate Western PA Congressman. My beef isn’t with Critz’s campaign getting new signs as much as my beef is with all the bloggers and news reports that Congressman Critz was a ‘real Democrat’ and Congressman Jason Altmire was just a DINO. Then I started to think about all the Critz campaign statements that inferred Congressman Altmire was just a DINO.

It just screams as a sellout to me on some level. When you scream from one mountain top about how proud you are of something, and then climb another mountain and pretend you didn’t climb the first mountain. Okay, so I’m struggling with an analogy, but something just doesn’t sit right with me about this change.  

Anti Critz Mailers

Negative piece against Mark Critz hitting him for his vote against Planned Parenthood:

Negative mail agasinst Mark Critz's vote against Wall Street reform:

New Anti-Critz mail pieces

More negatives mailers against Mark Critz. The first piece hits Critz on his vote against planned parenthood and the 2nd piece goes after Critz's vote against wall street reform.

Campaign Sign Thefts alleged in the PA12!

It seems like we here something like this every campaign season. I for one think yard signs in public right of ways are tacky and don't show support for a candidate.

I received an email that someone watched the campaign staff/volunteers that were putting up Mark Critz's yard signs on Route 22 in Murrysville didn't just place some Mark Critz signs on the side of the road. They allegedly took the Altmire signs out of the ground and threw them into the back of their vehicle.

Not much more to say, other than it is pretty desperate by your volunteers or staffers to be stealing your opponents signs.

Altmire cares about of veterans

Very nice veterans mailing. One issue that always works for Democrats or Republicans is veterans' issues.

Critz's answer to attack ad ignores facts

This entire Critz meltdown because of the Altmire television ad is interesting.

In the ad, Altmire says that Critz voted present on the Tea Party budget. This is accurate. Critz voted present. Altmire voted no. Fast forward to last week's vote on the same piece of legislation,
Altmire and Critz vote no.

First off, Critz appears to being playing politics with his vote. Voted present in 2011, voted no in 2012.

In Critz's press conference to defend his present vote, he stated: it was “A decision by our leaders.” That’s nice, but what about the people that elected you? His loyalty should be with the people of the 12th Congressional District, not with his leaders. I have never bought into the concept that our legislators should only vote the way leadership tells them to vote. I have always believed that our representative should vote the way their districts wants them too.

Additionally, Critz ran to Steny Hoyer for his defense. (who ran against and defeated his old boss and predecessor, Jack Murtha) Hoyer defends the present vote. Why? Hoyer says: “House Democrats stood together and voted ‘present’ on the extreme Republican budget in order to expose its radical policies. Doing this showed the American people just how extreme House Republicans are and how devastating their policies would be for our nation, like ending the Medicare guarantee. This was a vote to protect Medicare and derail the Republican Budget,” said democratic Whip Steny Hoyer who organized the efforts on behalf of House Democrats.”

If the goal was it would pass, cuts would happen, and then the American people would blame the Republicans? Really? Is that how it’s supposed to work? I don't understand how a present vote would help the Democrats prove this about the Republican budget. They should of stood together and voted NAY.

I’m not sure why political reporters and bloggers have taken the side of Critz and are taking his statements at face value. Quite simply, he made a bad vote. Just like he made a bad vote to defund Planned Parenthood, not to repeal don't ask don't tell, and against the wall street reform bill.

That is why Critz is running on healthcare, because he can't defend some of his bad votes and hopes that people forget this ad that he ran in 2010: