Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Don’t overanalyze a Special Election result by over-simplifying the issues

I can hardly handle the talking heads explaining why the Affordable Care Act is the reason that the Democrats lost the special election in 13th Congressional District of Florida. Why must we always point to one issue to explain political campaigns. Voters aren't that simple anywhere. Everyone did the same thing after the Senate Election in Massachusetts and explained how Obama was in trouble because of the results. Obviously, it didn't hurt Obama in 2012.

This special election wasn't a mandate the Affordable Care Act. The Democrat's candidate didn't even live in the district. That can be a tough thing to overcome, but not impossible. Congressman Keith Rothfus won his election in 2012 while not living within the 12th Congressional District border. If Rothfus was facing another person from Allegheny County, it might have been a tougher race in 2012. Geography matters in legislative races, and sometimes geography trumps other issues for legislative seats. Some people might have voted because of a commercial they saw or a mailer that they received. Some people might have voted for David Jolly because they thought he was a regular guy or of Congressional Stature. My point is that there are hundreds of reasons voters make their decisions on who to vote for and there is never one issue that truly is the only issue that gave someone the victory.

The only articles that I have found that has properly addressed the issues surrounding the special election in Florida is from Slate:

Florida-13: Three Things Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Republican Win

Special elections are a completely type of monster and have to be treated differently than a regular election when running them and analyzing the results.

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